18 January 2023 but still a draft to this date 15Dec25
- Expected shifts and renaissance in the military-industrial complexes and associated research programs within and across the Western powers. This post is a spur-of-the moment composition, without outlines and so I drift into different topics and is not of a quality of a media article or formal report
- Are we on the cusp of a period in human civilization’s history, when after a long period of relative global peace, the existential threats humanity is confronted with are least manageable?
- Now, even nuclear proliferation, that can come after accelerated conventional weapons modernization and build-up by other major economic powers, are not far-fetched. But what is the debacle for China? and the enigma of the evolving situation for its core team of national strategists?
- There is a sentiment that the world’s Western liberal forces have practically abandoned the freedom-loving people of Hong Kong in the same way that Crimeans were mostly left to their fate after the 2014 invasion by Russia. Same sentiments among many dissidents in China, and hundreds of millions of China’s citizens who are pro-democracy and opposed to communist dictatorship. Taiwan got inspired by the response of the U.S. and even hesitant powers like Germany and France in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine but the strategic ambiguity about extent the West is to defend Taiwan in case of China’s invasion is causing incomplete confidence among its otherwise peace and freedom-loving people
- It is the same situation inside mainland China, where the mass organ harvesting barely got the commensurate collective indignation from the Western powers and where Han supremacists among the Communist Party dictators feel little pressure on its racist domination of the Tibetan, Uyghur and Mongolian local societies and the genocidal acts they are masterminding against these minorities
- President Biden, as former President Trump was, and in the present as majority of law and policymakers across the political divides in the U.S., thankfully are not so absorbed and consumed by the hyper-partisan politics in the U.S. so as to not decisively exercise leadership of the free world; so as we long argued the long-term strategic foreign policies of the United States being rather stable and unflinching but we wish for a review in the conduct of programs designed mainly to advance the mutual interests of the U.S. and target beneficiary societies during time of peace
- How is it for me and us (with Rian) when we compose posts like this? This piece is spur-of-the moment spontaneous one and we are busy with many other chores and matters
First, Important Notes
The way this piece turned out in the last paragraphs, I am saying that this is a part of our project to help save lives. In 3 ways now, including our impending work in the terminal phase of our years-long initiatives and the long-term efforts to stop the seeds of future crises and conflicts that mainly afflict and devastate the poor and vulnerable families and communities in poor societies. Recently, at the cost of economic opportunities, and our precious time then, we helped solve a situation of an entire community being deprived of an facilities and support system for their yourth to not gravitate to a way of life of lawlessness and violence.
You see a sample of my creative phrasing to avoid endangering the person who literally begged and dragged us into this problem out of hopelessness, and to shield from hostile reactions the beneficiaries most of them are children, young adults and the youth in the community and beyond. These are supposed to be concerns and responsibilities of government agencies and even NGOs but for reasons of hostile physical, social and political environments they would choose to focus on projects and interventions where they are comfortable and privileged though this kind of community is a priority target area of multi-million dollar programs and projects which ultimate goals include laying the foundations for prospects of long-term peace and economic development.
We do this independently, mainly to avoid getting compromised in our kind of severely corrupt society and to not dilute our causes and advocacy campaigns with political and ideological agendas of partisan groups and entities in the country. But we welcome donations and support now, only from vetted persons and entities. More on this in the last part of this post.
Just like with the global Covid pandemic, many among those in the core of military strategists who advise and influence Chairman Xi Jinping, the Central Politburo, Communist Party of China at large and of course the PLA thought it’s an unbelievable luck that they just had when Russia was initiating moves to invade and then start its invasion of Ukraine (regardless of media reports global powers would have their intelligence services aware of the real situation of an impending invasion then). Global economic crisis, fossil fuel supply and transport crisis, food crisis in the poor regions of the world plus same situation among poor families in the West were scenarios not difficult to predict as some of the consequences. Of course the fallout include mass protests, maybe some unrests somewhere out there, political crisis even.
More difficult to anticipate but were plausible were hundreds of billions, maybe trillions, in total audited and societal costs in lost opportunities for Western powers and societies as they expectedly commit to act with broad-based approaches. China’s leaders and military strategists, we can speculate, thought the West would be so weighed down by these on top of the post-Covid recovery challenges that China would have this rare period of opportunity to drastically boost, or close and widen gaps, in its relative competitiveness, military capabilities its economic-diplomacy powers.
As China finds a unique strategic window to accelerate all of its industrial, technological, economic, military and space programs and projects, the prospects for the West would not be so good, so easy for the PLA leaders to think of. As the global Covid pandemic crisis situations relatively boosted China’s economic capabilities (though this turned out to be in short-term basis only, as the Western countries all got knocked back into senses in the need to shift supply-chain dependence away from China and these are in broad-based and long-term approaches too), so would the troubles expected in Europe as the invasion unfolded. But as with other highly complex situations that every war is, they must have made very serious blunders in their assessments and scenario-planning. It’s the proverbial shit hitting the fan thing, all hell broke lose for their expected euphoric state of feelings in their perceived luck.
Some context in my kind of simple civilian thinking on these topics
In our, and my (Ernest) Facebook posts, I already predicted accelerated military modernization and military build up as a natural and predictable consequence of China’s accelerated and agressive expansion of its capabilities. I also have some grasp of world history, at least enough to see the history of human folly, of what would really happen beyond the ideals and dream scenarios of peace and harmony among societies in all of the world. For example, I hammered on common misconceptions about the realtive powers of and realities in the society of mainland China. These are in some of my Facebook posts and also an article about the Road and Belt Initiative of China at iDisrupt.blogspot.com published years ago and its copy is not in this website too.
These misconceptions, even ignorance, was prevalent even among leaders of society and even national leaders for example in a country like the Philippines. (And on this I made an argument in a private paper, in my assertion that this can lead to very deadly consequences and difficult geopolitical situations however manageable and short-term or situational.) What multi-billion programs of Western agencies fell short in accomplishing, I and later we (with Rian) helped accomplish. I am not saying to boast, as that is absurd given that some of the intended readers here are some of the most accomplished, most naturally intelligent, most equippped, most empowered with and with unfettered access to all kinds of data and info, the people formally schooled in the best institutions on Earth. Because this is also like a repository of my thoughts, I am putting on public record my thoughts, like thinking aloud here, and sometimes baring my emotions on the thoughts. This is a spur-of-the-moment composition, when something crossed my mind as I and Rian reviewed and edited the aesthetics of the graphics and photos in our posts in other platforms.
[ A part here is meantime omitted or made non-public – 15Dec25 edit ] I made many posts that called for attention on issues and facts, and realities among societies in the developing world, among other things, my discovery of multi-billion programs, for example, of Western agencies, to counter the vast and effective propaganda machinery of those fomenting anti-American, anti-West sentiments among vulnerable populations, these being far less effective than the multi-billion multi-decade efforts would suggest. The vast propaganda machineries I’m referring to, for example, are of the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP-NDF) and its armed wing, among others.
When it comes to some programs in the developing countries, of agencies in-charge of advancing the national strategies of Western powers, matrices used for measuring success, I dare say, should be updated throughly, seriously reviewed and updated. Our work are useful to this, and we hope we have been helping all these years, for free and at no cost to these agencies. Everything looks good on paper, but in severely corrupt and undermined societies, these programs were like simple livelihood ones for some of those who implement it all on the ground, livelihood for themselves and certainly not being implemented with required intensity, passion, sense of purpose and institutional goals of the donor and implementing agencies.
Now, Even Nuclear Proliferation, that Can Come After Accelerated Weapons Modernization and Build-Up, Are Not Far-Fetched. But What is the Debacle for China?
Let’s start with what’s yet not on public discourses and articles in the news media and think tanks (maybe I’m just not yet aware of any of these). I was supposed to write about this in a private paper, but due to shortage of time and resources I am doing it here in spontaneous manner. We just had our dinner of simple instant noodles, past 9pm, afterwhich I got back to this and in this paragraph. Rian would not let me eat a more nutritious dinner due to budget constraints. It’s been days since I first begged for snacks so I get some extra energy when my mind is into high gear in thinking. Right now, I’m at work on several components of the design of this site, but as usual we also do chores and I just helped him wash utensils in a common CR of this facility (I choose words to avoid unnecessarily disclosing details of our day to day lives wherever we are and in whatever situation).
China was in an accelerated and agressive mode of weapons development, modernization and military expansion long before the war in Ukraine. Of course these must be based on assumptions, probabilities, historical data and patterns, relative realities and capabilities in both Asia and the world especially among peers in its category of economic, political and military powers. These are also based on stolen data, designs, information, plans and technologies from the U.S. and other Western powers. Definitely, as strategy principles call for it, these are also based on the country’s assessed present, emerging, projected scientific, technological (applied sciences), human resources and capabilities. With its vast resources and interests, China can also set out to spend on programs in the frontiers of the sciences. It must also had a bit unrealistic projections of its economic prospects. It’s PhD students in the U.S., and those lined up among the best and brightest and most promising of its young scientists, are also expected to match or even go beyond their peers in the U.S., Europe and Japan in terms of collective capabilities mainly because of the sheer number of them (Metropolitan Shanghai and Beijing, just to cite 2 small areas, both have populations nearly comparable to Australia, Canada, all of Scandinavia, Taiwan, and many small countries of Europe).
These assumptions, bottomlines, comparable capabilities and bases for projections have gone insanely off-grid. The war in Ukraine, as with any war, brought about predictable but also unique, rogue, off-the-charts and patterns, never-in-history and new paradigms. Mindsets, as I always assert in my lectures about business and political strategies to simple folks in the country, should also have a complete reset and not mere shifts. Result? More confusions and enigmatic situations and probabilities to deal with. To some extent, it’s the same in Western militaries and governments, but to begin with, these powers already were on the lead and superior in capabilities in some arenas by leaps and bounds or several generations of weapons systems. I also don’t believe n the superiority of the hypersonic and AI capabilities of China, eversince. It’s in the best interests of the leading Western technological powers to discourage feeling of insecurity and inferiority among Chinese strategists so as to not to cause further boosting of their efforts in accelerating their programs and projects on these new weapons systems.
Now, China not only needs to re-calculate its calculus in a grand scale, it has to scrap entire programs and projects at least in its present forms and designs. To begin with, many of these were intended to simply match and counter the kinds of potency of weapon systems in the West. It can take years for its strategists to come up with coherent new grand plans. And the probabilities of grand mistakes (blunders) even inclusion of delusional concepts in the plans (due to nationalistic sentiments in a communist country under dictatorship and dictator-for-life Xi Jinping) are high, in the reality of even Western grand strategic plans failing on matters that require inputs and assumptions that mathematical modellings of even the most advanced military artificial intelligence applications of today and foreseeable future.
Did AI, or the most experienced war planners and development experts ever speculated about an ISIS phenomenon emerging, wreaking havoc and disrupting everything about plans? In retrospect, it’s easy for so-called pundits even realistic strategists to later say that if the Shiite government of Iraq fufilled its commitment of power-sharing in Iraq (with Sunni elites, to be precise) then it would have been a different turn of events in history, but this is also speculative. Point is that human folly, failings and highly complex influences in the minds and decision-making mechanisms, in the brain plus of all of a society are just far too intractably poorly understood so as to easily cause failures in planners with very poor relevant real-world experiences across disciplines and operations.
I inject this here… Appealing to basic instincts, a simple and entrenched practice in espionage, is what China is now indulging with its billions of dollars in slush funds and dirty money and all, buying, corrupting former Western operatives buying (without subjects realizing it, or being consenting to it) behavioral even operational secrets from them, successfully at that at least for maybe some more few years unless this is abruptly stopped by new or amended laws in Western countries. I have more private concerns on this dilemma and I intend to reserve some of my thoughts on this, as if I’m holding back anything on this post, but indeed I do. I can be stubborn and careless, but for others to think of me as such, totally, they’re not making a good bet.
There were so many instances when I said a lot, but in-fact I said nothing, but those we interact with would think they could indulge in me during these conversations. I’m saying this because some folks lacking scruples might make wrong moves that nevertheless put us in some very difficult situations, here in our severely corrupt society. I give it my best, but when we detect above-average arrogance, and sense utter lack of sincerity in those we interact and even work with, I can go my own way of returning subtle insults too. Recently, someone rising to middle level of power showed us this kind of very arrogant behavior, in his efforts to cover up wrongdoings that endanger the country’s food security and the rather sincere efforts of the Marcos administration (and his family) to address the relevant urgent issues.
But I have this in mind mainly, being oriented in business (that tha vast majority of military people didn’t have the opportunities to have immersion and be battle-scarred with, that I got blessed with at very early age beacuse of needs). The military-industrial complexes in Europe, Japan, the U.S. especially, and maybe India too, and to far lesser extent the narrow and shallow but advanced industries in many other countries almost all of it in the liberal global club of nations (South Korea, formerly Eastern Europe, Australia, Brazil maybe, etc.) have been reeling from the end of the Cold War and the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Now, governments across the world are adding, combined, hundreds of billions in official budgets and worth of other resources being committed annually for the next decade and beyond. Modernization of weapons and systems are being expanded in scope, in accelerating pace. Raw numbers in stockpiles are being dramatically increased. Production capacities are being expanded. Best of all, soldier personal comforts and conveniences plus effectiveness (new and smarter gears, better equipment, smarter weapons and facilities plus benefits) are being boosted so the morale is only set to drastically improve and the quality of new recruits too (we hope).
Expect the infusion of adrenaline to the military-industrial complexes, and the research institutes associated with the programs and projects to also boost private-sector innovations across industries. The additional annual budget of billions of dollars by each of many governments; the compounded impact in the scale and speed of developments of weapon systems across defence sub-industries, across the private and public sectors, and across nations whose total GDP is more than 3 times that of China and even more so in GDP per capita — these are what China is staring at right now. It’s been going on for many years now, that due to the geopolitical tensions, caused mainly by China in its rogue and aggresive acts in its borders with India, the South China Sea (grabbing territories of neighbors) and East Asia (Taiwan and north of it in the Japanese southernmost islands), that there’s a moderate arms-race like situation in South, Southeast, and East Asian regions of Asia.
Can China catch up with the West, and keep up with the most recent developments? Can the Communist Party of China dictatorship cope up with all of these and can it risk perception of failure in both leadership and governance? Is Taiwan too economically, politically risky to invade; and if this is not pursued within a given window can the CCP afford to lose it for good when its no longer feasible without risking the fall from power of communist dictators and unimaginable but possible political instability as an aftermath in a behemoth of a society that is China? Speculative thinking here.
Africa’s total population is still growing rather unabated. Southeast Asian countries are developing rather fast, and so is its combined economic and the member nations’ individual military capabilities sans 3 of them maybe. Germany and Japan are economic and political giants (also technologically long been capable of developing and deploying nuclear weapons) now intending to build up even more military muscles, what with their immense individual and combined present technological prowess and potential for much greater military might. India is awakening, however still hobbled by its intractable societal dilemmas and a population size relative to its geographical size that is so daunting to effectively govern, but it is fast developing credible deterrence to existential threats what with its nuclear weapons delivery systems drastically improving.
The shift in global economic gravity to the South, Southeast and East Asia is another compounding factor for China. The fast growing industrial capacities and overall prowess of major nations in this super-region of the world (where populations are relatively fast-growing too) means China can’t expect to soon dominate it all as others feared for some time now. These, among many other factors or developing situations plus one-off Black Swan events, make it all crazy to evin begin to think about in a non-structured and disciplined way that I am doing right now (not that any single person or organization can deal with this, I’m just injecting the fact I’m into some spontaneous musings and ramblings here now). In any case, these entails generational efforts to deftly analyze and deal with; the U.S. and Europe have been on these since generations ago and they still make blunders or be rendered cornered in some situations if due to unintended consequences and complexities of home politics.
The growing capabilities of the military-industrial complexes in the West are also sure to put pressures (political) on other growing powers to further boost their build-ups and modernizations (Brazil, Indonesia, Middle Eastern and major African countries are targets for sales of weapons). It’s business and lobbying on steroids, so to speak. Imagine the compounded effect of it all in our world this early to middle part of this 21st century. The windfall for defense contractors and research establishments in turn further empower them with ever more R & D money, and incentives, to shorten the life cycle of weapons systems by accelerating development of new ones and this is also compelling due to need to sustain their larger operations, facilities and human resources.
Russia, to add, now knows how bad the situation is for its defense establishment, its weapons systems and overall capability versus that of Europe and the United States. So it is expected that with what’s left of its might in the sciences, its long tradition of excellence in some scientific and technological research and development arenas, never mind its industrial capabilities being almost in the ruins and so poor now, that it aims to drastically improve on these and adress deficiencies and structural flaws, with catching up with the Western Europe and the U.S. its focus. This means also that China now expects its northern neighbor which is a colussos of natural resources to not only streghthen its basic deterrence to existential threats but also sustain its superior advantages (versus China’s, like in jet engines and components of aerospace systems) in certain technologies for tactical weapon systems.
The military-industrial complex in Russia will get a boost in funding and all kinds of state support, no matter the economic fallout of the war in Ukraine. It’s also not lost in China that Russia got to test its weapon systems in Ukraine, in addition to the Middle East, and wonder about the relative effectiveness and potency of its new weapons systems that mostly remain untested in wars. To add, imagine the data Europe and the United States are getting in their tactical weapons systems now deployed in Ukraine, so beyond the Middle East and Afghanistan where many of these were used, these are now destined to become ever so much more cost-effective and potent. Of course China is learning too, but real world live situations are different for those who themselves (operatives) and their gadgets are at work and immersed in blow-by-blow situations. I can watch all of the Formula One races, and all other kinds of races, and be fed with all kinds of live streams of data, and see the moves, but I would still be a disastrous driver when put into one of those beasts of auto machines even after analyzing it all and doing practice driving outside of the real world competition.
After a long period of record low number of major conflicts, wars and violence in world history, it’s sad that we just might be on the brink of record dangers to our relative global peace and order. If proliferation accelerates, then the triggers, catalysts and simple mistakes and miscalculations that could spell cataclysmic nuclear disaster that were relatively well-managed during the Cold War can be beyond manageable sooner than humanity realizes. The human specie is ingenius in its ways and means for self-destruction.
Meantime, in this kind of world, where China gets a pass on everything, the moral authority of Western powers to reign-in on these developing dangers of existential threats is eroding. The hyper-partisan societies of the West, and the unforgiving hatred between these political and societal forces are grave threats we consider too, in the rules-based liberal world order of now. If an American wants propaganda that is effective against himself, don’t go hunting for it among so-called lairs of terrorism among so-called backward and troubled societies. You find reasons for hating your neighbors and friends, endless number of them, in your very own supposed most advanced and civilized society.
So we call your attention to our online campaign on-going for years now. Help stop fomenting hatred of your own kind. Stop countering the billion-dollars worth of government programs in poor and vulnerable and troubled societies from being effective by way of negating the impact of goodwill and your tax money being spent on the programs and projects to ensure the development of people and communities and thus overall societies friendly to the interests and subscribing to the democratic ideals of the Western liberal world. Right now, all that they can see (exagerration here, but you get the point) are people on TV and social media and all new media fometing hatred of those who oppose their opinions, ideologies and politics and we are not talking Iran here, it’s the Western societies.
If former President Trump is the most hated figure in the Western media, and in same sphere people claim President Biden now is the most anomalous and compromised leader of the free world, and according to same Western media Prince Harry claimed the royal family of England is racist, is Chairman Xi Jinping now the morally upright most consequential leader of the world? Truth is, neither Trump nor President Joe Biden ordered the murder of a single person, or approved of wide scale program of killings and racist domination of minorities. They, and relatives, did not steal hundreds of millions of dollars of public money. None of the 2 approved of exports of industrial quantities of illegal drugs to poorer countries being undermined to weaken societies that are not historically susceptible to China’s maneuverings and thus not considered long-term allies. Both American leaders have advanced many of humanity’s greater causes. And both of them, as any future leader of the free world, are entitled to their own imperfections that everyone of us is, for as long as these have no bearing on how others exercise their own basic rights and freedoms.
China, under the dictatorship of the Communist Party, in our private assertions, inspired mass killings, and to create an enabling environment where people in a society have become inured to violence and killings, genocide is not a remote possibility in any given society. It was crazy how mass violence and killings started in modern-day Rwanda. It was preventable. It was not a fate no one, and no power, could stop. In vulnerable and severely corrupt societies, powerful leaders can emerge, who then find credible backings from mighty capable donors to survive any viciously rascal experiment to wreak havoc in the name of solving so-called social, political structural defects in a society. For as long as China guarantees, or underwrite the survival and viable future for any rogue ruler, in exchange for geopolitical gains, then the CCP shouldn’t be attributed with any credibility at all in the global stage. I can’t say it straight here, so again one of the crazy and vague statements I write about sensitive matters. We campaigned, and worked to help save so many lives even as our own were endangered, and so this is a topic that is in our passion and I am sorry to drift into this.
I really feel sleepy now. But I just have many more tasks to accomplish here, and it’s past midnight. I made noise to Rian, to heat water for our coffee. I feel bad about having gone astray, and delayed work on other tasks here. But I feel relieved to have expressed my thoughts on these topics tonight. Okay, I’ll lie down, and maybe take a nap or maybe not. But the head traumas I suffered from have shortened my endurance for any kind of work. I used to indulge in some work for all of the night and even beyond early morning of the following day, sometimes to take advantage of relatively fast internet at past midnight when doing work that requires internet. But it’s different now, I’m not sure it’s long Covid that exacerbated it all. But overall, I and we remain very productive and even more effective at what we do since eand of last year partly due to special situations, one after another, that we got ourselves into.
If this were some kind of semi-formal paper or report, this would be a first draft. I never do outlines of topics except in formal reports. So this is rather freewheeling. But I am like a stubborn fool to do this kind of publishing my thoughts this raw, and spontaneously. This is a long day, a very long one for me in terms of the number of emotions that I’ve gone through in all of the hours I was doing chores, work and thinking here. There’s is also this frustration about a situation here, why we ended up in this place and situation right now. We are also to deal with many urgent and important matters, supposedly since months ago. And you know we have at least 2 new initiatives to begin to intensely work on in its final, terminal phase (on our end) anytime now.
Please, Please. You get more of this type of articles if only you support us. We got zero, literally, in all of the years we tried to raise even little amounts. We spent what to us were personal fortunes of hard-earned resources to successfuly and still effectively address situations and support long-term goals of organizations that they spend millions of dollars for and as we long argued not getting the minimum of returns and the kind of impact (bottomlines) they expected (or as required) from the supposed successful implementations of these programs and projects. However, we can’t provide links here because we seriously vet those we think we would accept donations and support from.
This is also to debunk speculations we get funding and support from some folks, some entities somewhere out there. It’s obvious even in this article that we are fiercely independent, mainly because we live and work in a severely corrupt society. And so unlike formal reports from those in a severely corrupt society, and paid articles in all of the Western media, our posts are most objective, that we’re intellectually rather very honest and certainly not compromised. Our work have helped save many lives, still does, more than those in some corrupted, routine and ineffective multi-million dollar special operations and activities.
We also work to disrupt situations that we know can lead to acts of mass violence and future genocide. As private citizens, independently at that. You can make a difference. You have a choice in either having your name published if a simple condition is met, or that we get it anonymously. Thank you ladies and gentlemen, sirs and madams. If Paypal links are actually here, it means we have not yet promoted this post in other platforms, or keeping it yet a non-priority for bots of Google.
