19 January 2023
- Not all crises, conflicts and acts of genocides are preventable. But what are those that are?
- Why strategic ambiguity is not the best Idea in the U.S.’s commitment of full military support of Taiwan in case of China’s forceful seizing of control of this extraordinarily successful society?
- The erosion of moral authority in Western institutions is a threat to global rules-based order and peace
- What can we imagine about Taiwan should it’s fate fall in the hands of Chinese Communist Party corrupt dictators?
- Japan and the existential threat posed by China to this economic superpower and this most powerful democratic country in Asia
When it was not yet in the mainstream media, I was the first to post about the dangers of Ukraine, in the fringes of Eastern Europe, falling under Russian occupation and the grave dangers it would pose in liberal rules-based global order, the long period of relative world peace since WWII and in the keeping the status quo of non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. Already, China’s territorial grabbing in the West Philippine and South China Seas; its military operations in its border with India, maritime areas in and wournd Taiwan, and around the Japense Senkaku islands have caused an acceleration of weapons modernization and silent conventional weapons arms race in Sotheast, South and East Asian regions of the world. (On this I was also one of those first among private citizens and ordinary civilians to call atention of the general public in our region of sub-region of Asia, through our Facebook accounts and blog sites.)
The super-region of the world from Pakistan to Japan and Koreas is home to 4 nuclear-armed states of Pakistan, India, China and North Korea. Japan is highly capable of going nuclear in its defense against existential threats from China, and even Russia (forget North Korea, which is rather manageable, having only rlatively primitive delivery systems so far and for the foreseeable future). Indonesia is a growing economic tiger rich in mineral and other natural resources and with a population more than twice that of Mexico or Brazil, or combined population of Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Malaysia. Taiwan and South Korea face clear and present existential threats from North Korea and China, respectively, and are both key industrial powerhouses of the world. Thailand and Malaysia are to become developed countries within two decades with the Philippines (sans a long period of political crisis and internal conflicts erupting) not being far behind. Vitenam is steadily rising.
A compounding factor in the already perplexing scenarios emerging, and how it all shapes up, the geopolitical picture in this part of the world is the fact we are talking here of the world’s insanely big biggest consumer and industrial market base, that of course further complicates the way the Western powers and present international order can influence the turn of history. Within each country alone, sans the nearly homogenous ones in the societies of Japan, South Korea and few others, there are insanely numerous languages and dialects among ethnic minorities and tribal groups. We have very unique versions of democracy too, think of Singapore and Malaysia, and the history of democracy in Pakistan. In terms of sustainability, imagine the per-capita population density of India and Bangladesh, and the immensity of the required natural resources to satisfy the hundreds of millions more of mainland Chinese going up the upper and middle class status in addition to those in India and rest of the super-region. If its all mind-boggling, well, I am just starting here, but you get the point. It’s all enigmatic, how to direct the course of human history in, well, sustainable ways, at least in this biggest (economical super-region) part of the world.
But here, I am into something dear to our hearts. Our long-standing private-sector, indepedent advocacy and campaigns to stop the seeds of future conflicts and crises, at least the established preventable ones. One big idea, is that China goes responsible. It cannot, it’s Communist Party dictators, be so rogue so as in its pursuit of its national interests, undermine the prospects of long-term and stable peace, by creating enabling environments for those contemplating the use of mass violence to exercise dictatorial powers the would-be rogue rulers or dictators being good targets of opportunistic alliance-building by China. I can’t make the substantive argument here, but if you’re an invited reader you know exactly what I mean here.
If Russia could not count on the support of China, an economic behemoth and permanent power in the Security Council of the United Nations now using its magic of mighty cash power to corrupt governments and rulers and institutions around the world, then it probably, though this should sound naive speculation on my part, hesitated to go about invading a country that is not small by all standards and with people were like historical siblings to the Russians themselves. But Russia did. And China could not do away with the technological prowess of Russia in critical military technologies (jet engines, missiles systrems to cite 2) and could not risk access to Russia’s vast forests in Siberia, food resources and of course fossil fuel reserves and industry’s mighty infrastructure (versus those in Venezuela, for one). The big bonanza for China: The world would not be able to expel the Russians from Ukraine. So Communist strategists would have thought. And so, Taiwan is game, and there goes the industrial complexes of the West falling hostage to China’s control of Taiwan’s mighty semiconductor manufacturing facilities and companies.
It’s a bloody war. Not as many civilians have been killed, as in the conflicts in the Middle East in the last 2 decades (due to genocidal acts that targeted minority civilians). But soldier lives, in a senseless war of aggression or any other kind of conflict, is just like a loss of any human life. Countless children have died, killed, hit by bombs, rockets, missiles and bullets. As someone who have suffered from torture, horros, attempted murder and even traumatic harassments, I tell you that I can relate to the grave sufferings of these families in Ukraine, the unwilling soldiers of Russia and their families and all getting caught in both the physical and figurative crossfire. The food-poor families around the world, statistics not yet available must paint a very dire picture. Rian and I stand in solidarity with the people of Ukraine. If I can get my hands on some families with children, I am willing to risk my life to do something maybe tutoring, however seemingly petty given their predicament and the war I can’t imagine but something that I thought of last night as I struggled to fall asleep fast (long past midnight actually). These children should grow up with hopes, with a zest for life, with belief in the good of their neighbors and of humanity, in the value of their very lives and those of the others, with a sense of purpose and meaning, with education and skills to take on life. This war, any unjust war, is a monstrous living nightmare for them. I pray for them.
Back to Asia. Here, the potential for nuclear exchange between military powers, of a war that involves use of tactical or so nuclear weapons, is ever growing. The chances of foolish mistakes and miscalculations multiplying, even in simple confrontations and encounters going out of hand and spiralling into a major conventional war that then leads to at least even less manageable post WWII and Cold War-like arms race. I have my mind here going wild with speculations and imaginations. But then again, 1 bullet in Europe spelled the end a long-term relative global peace (in terms of number of active conflicts between peoples and kingdoms but this is not so clear to me) and led to WWI. One person’s belief in the superiority of genetics of a race led to you know what and all of WWII. Man is crazy, human folly leading to bloody conflicts is standared fare in world history, in all of human civilization.
There are proven preventable conflicts and crises. And genocides or acts of mass killings. In retrospect, any past conflict or crisis was, but we don’t go arrogant in thinking we can always get it right before the fact. I’m saying that there are simple bottomline factors in creating a stable, prosperous, just and thriving society that is of course never have to be perfect in whatever strict definition of the word. In this, we only need to be cognizant of the ways and means of governance in Western Europe and many other societies in the West including of course the United States.
It’s a whole of nation, whole of society approaches honed, refined and enhanced over the last century at least (I’m not a historian, after all). It’s of course all of these principles, and values encapsulated in both official and civilian workings of a society. Broad-based characteristics include tolerance, equality, good governance, rule of law, inclusiveness, trustworthiness of institutions and a non-restrictive environment for the pursuit of aspirations. All in a democratic system that protects and promotes civil liberties, exercises of basic freedoms; that facilitates active discourses and healthy debates on issues and priorities; a society that is permissive to the seeking of remedies for those aggrieved and wronged with a reliable system of justice; a system of the people, by the people, and for the people. To add, it is required: Fair, transparent, and trustworthy election system. These have all become just mere academic and rhetorical concepts now, in a world that is becoming so unforgivingly and fiercely hyperpartisan, and I’m referring to many Western societies including the United States now. With all of the failings and imperfections of Western-style democracy, we really have no better alternative. China’s?
Taiwan cannot fall, even in the more and more likely scenario of the Communist Party of China dictators forcing this issue of what its propaganda claim as righteous and legal capture of the self-governing society both for political and practical gains. Because, if it’s a success for the CCP, it’s a grave injustice for the people of Taiwan. It’s not all about the geopolitical implications, and economic fallout in the industrial world, it’s also about the human rights of the Taiwanese and the Taiwanese-Chinese, their right to their preferred and approved kind of governance and society, and rights to life, liberty and fundamental basic freedoms in a system they have chosen for their society.
Taiwan if to fall means also that its decades-worth of hard labor, ingenuity, struggles and all extraordinary achievements would be destroyed, in ruins, all of these physical structures and their homes and critical health-facilities; their way of life, now-distinct culture and traditions to be forcibly, unrecoggnizably altered; their very collective identity erased; their priorities replaced by what the communists would dictate; the Taiwanese people getting the unfair treatment in all of the global institutions and societies as of being people of the corrupt and murderous communist leaders of China and so be unfairly constrained; of their dreams crushed and of their children now to be communist-indoctrinated by force fed with propaganda to cause them to grow up hating Americans and all Westerners and Japanese people all of these are their very good friends now.
The Philippines would have foreign bases in its north again, if to counter the presence of communist military bases in Taiwan. Japan to further accelerate its weapons modernization and stockpiles or units of of all kinds of potent weapon-systems. The Philippines becomes a major Asian military force. China takes the prize of the unwilling great human resource in the Taiwanese-Chinese, and all of their mighty industrial capabilities and organizations. Other military mighty countries out there with fabricated historical claims (that China, it insists, have, in all of the South China Sea citing a bogus historical map and activities of their ancestors). Communist-indoctrinated young professionals and hard-core Maoist-Marxist-Leninist senior bureaucrats of mainland China taking over supervision and leadership of Taiwan’s agencies, academic establishments and even regulations of privately-owned companies.
The case of post-British Hong Kong is a benign one, to compare, as it was in a relatively different era and with an economically and militarily much weaker China when it was all negotiated with the people of Hong Kong (to some extent) and the British government. A post-invasion Taiwan would be dependent on infrastructure rebuilding from the communist dictators. China indulges in all kinds of intelligence windfall, military secrets and weapons systems from the West that it can then all look closely into regardless that expectedly these are rather bare of critical secrets. The semiconductor manufacturing infrastructure of Taiwan then helps catapult China into an undisputed highest-level industrial powerhouse. China would now have a super-corridor in its power projection into the western and all of the Pacific.
I’m not a military man, so civilian thinking here. I’m putting on public record my rationale for tackling the Taiwan issue in my Facebook posts. An irresponsible and imperialistic Chinese Communist Party, with its core of corrupt leaders, is inspiring acts of genocides. When you, an entity, or country becomes a pariah in this world, you become opportunistic in your alliance-building to such an extent you abet, empower, support, prop, enable, make viable any would be rogue dictator beacuse in that case that dictator would have dependence on you (China). By its very example, and alliance or partnership with North Korean dictator, to the immoral mind of dictators no crime is heinous, no mass killings or acts of genocide is career or rule-ending, no rogue policy is unacceptable, no violent means of exercises of power is not politically survivable. (Wait, I remember a college professor asking me to revise statements like these, double negatives if I remember it right and it’s what I’m committing here. Give a pass here, this is first draft and I might do some basic editing but I am to get extremely busy with other matters, shortly. Sorry.)
There seems to be 2 approaches to troubles now emerging. Diplomacy, and more of it. And only this. And more of it. Risk-averse, disruption-averse thinking is understandable. But in our world history, we have figures like those who thought about invading Ukraine, from out of the blue. Hitler, sorry for the mention, resorted to some sort of genetic cleansing (one of his key aides and deputies I can’t remember the name now was most consequential to this, his thinking, if I got this right, one of the less known information about it all) of the human race in his so-called empire, conquered and controlled territories. One can think of possibilities and remedies and diplomacy for extended periods of time, based on the belief in the good and sanity of humankind. While the other party is already into a momentum to carry out his sinister plans. I am saying that I believe in the more forceful assertion by the U.S. and all Western powers that the status quo in Taiwan is non-negotiable. Because otherwise even China can face a world where annihilation of the human race, at least civilization, in the case of unabated proliferation, is right around every corner of the world.
The fate of the Taiwanese people, in the standoff between them and the Communist dictators of China, is the fate of the cause of stable rules-based, consensus-based, international order and world peace prevailing now for many decades and in-fact creating an enabling global order for China’s rise. The Japanese people had the discipline and steadfastness in shying from home-developed nuclear weapons. They have helped the cause of peace and prevention and resolution of conflicts, and genocides, in many parts of Asia for so many decades now. They can’t have a reason, to think very differently this time, though we very strongly advocate a militarily mighty strong Japan if to establish stronger deterrence against China’s existential threat to the Japanese people.
I don’t believe in fiery and provocative rhetoric, inflammatory statements in an already volatile situation. I also believe Taiwan, and its people are being grossly underestimated. It is also an economic power and that it’s GDP hardly reflects it’s overall relative economic and diplomatic powers (relative to other major nations, not China; diplomatic power measured in non-formal and official measures). with highly consequential (in both ways) investments and ties to China. We also support Taiwan’s membership in the World Health Organization.
While I was doing this, I had many emotions and worries playing in me, my thoughts. Also some refrigerated van for ice cream was parked right in front of our room, its engine not being turned off for many hours since sundown. We also have many urgent concerns, and other chores and work pending, including in other parts of this website. I also had to deal with a big and long hassle today, because of the rudeness of the lady caretaker of this place. It was also mostly humid and hot in our room almost the whole day. I was also thinking about many other situations, people and our personal belongings we left somewhere out there. Another long day for us. But I couldn’t help adding this content in this site. It’s freewheeling thinking I had in the hours I typed this, punctuated by meals, coffee sessions and some chores.
[ Texts in the first photo-graphic far above ]
Perception of moral authority is the basis for the most effective exercises of power and influence, and especially if coupled with hard power & economic might. In a world where there is a continuing and seemingly irreversible erosion of trust in so-called authoritative entities, so many citizens especially in developing societies are more & more prone to radicalization. If for example, China can get a free pass for ecocide & agressive military expansion in the South China & West Philippine Seas; accelerated build-up of nuclear weapons; racist domination of Uyghur, Tibetan and Mongolian societies; ravaging of
the forests of Siberia; mass organ harvesting; expansion of coal-power capacity; spewing big lies in its Covid pandemic reports & statistics; reported complicity in exports of industrial quantities of instantly-addictive, deadly illegal drugs in vulnerable societies the Communist Party of China and its PLA want so weakened; what now with this hypocritical treatment of its imperialistic dictators? Also, China’s mighty cash power is undermining global rules-based order. Japan’s Prime Minister Kishida & President Biden are on point: U.S., E.U., SoKor, Japan, Australia, India, all of the West better get their acts potently coherent & decisive
